MAFAC Adult Abundance Goals
MAFAC Stock Groups Natural Adult Abundance Goals Dashboard
This dashboard is an informational tool that includes numerical goals for Columbia Basin salmon and steelhead group of stocks (referred to as MAFAC Stocks) as identified by the Columbia River Partnership Task Force (CBPTF) of the NOAA Marine Fisheries Advisory Committee (MAFAC). The CBPTF included these goals in their Phase 2 (Final) Report “A Vision for Salmon and Steelhead Goals to Restore Thriving Salmon and Steelhead to the Columbia River Basin.” See links at bottom of page for all documents.
MAFAC stock groups’ geo-means and goals included in the MAFAC Final report were not limited to the monitoring data exchanged within the CAP Fish HLIs and instead were informed by multiple sources of information as described in the MAFAC report.
This information provides a general context for the CBPTF goals for returns considered natural origin. Hatchery returns and metrics are not included in this display.
Static data from the 2020 Phase 2 Report shown in this Dashboard are pulled from two tables:
- Table 5. Natural-origin salmon and steelhead stocks as defined by the Columbia Basin Partnership Task Force based on region, species, and run type, and number of historical and extirpated populations in each stock
- Table 8. Aggregate stock-specific abundance values for natural-origin escapement under current and historical conditions, and low, medium, and high goal ranges.
Progress towards the CBPTF goals will require in-depth scientific analysis, which is not within the scope of work represented here nor performed by StreamNet.
To get started Select a Species and a MAFAC Stock.
To view the data for individual populations that are included in the Stock, select a population.
Acronyms used in the dashboard:
- CAP: Coordinated Assessments Partnership
- Geo Mean: Geometric mean
- HLIs: High level indicators
- MAFAC: Marine Fisheries Advisory Committee
- NOSA: Natural-origin spawner abundance
Definitions of terms used for stock, population, and status:
- Extant: Population is still in existence.
- Extinct: Permanent loss of stock from the planet, it no longer exists anywhere.
- Functionally Extirpated: Population may have a few individuals but not enough to maintain successful reproduction or genetic integrity.
- Extirpated: Population no longer exists within a certain geographical location.
- (Re)introduced: Population has been reintroduced through hatchery supplementation with endemic stock or introduced from external stocks.
- MAFAC Stock: For the purposes of the Columbia Basin Partnership Task Force, a stock is defined for Columbia Basin salmon and steelhead based on species (Chinook salmon, coho salmon, sockeye salmon, chum salmon, steelhead trout), region of origin (e.g., Lower Columbia, Middle Columbia, Upper Columbia, Snake, or Willamette) and run type (e.g. spring, summer, fall, late fall).
- CAP Population: Coordinated Assessments Partnership has adopted population level identifiers as defined by regulatory or management agencies. Current populations are available here and further information for Fish Management Unit Boundaries and Attributes can be found here.
Dashboard Values
Values displayed on the dashboard described as “CAP-based values” and “Based on CAP HLIs” are an aggregate or subset of Coordinated Assessments Partnership’s Fish HLIs estimates. The values that are from the available CAP Fish HLI estimates may be from all or a subset of the Extant populations for this MAFAC stock group and are dependent on monitoring efforts and providing the analysis to the CAP data exchange. The rules applied to inform these values are described in the “Values Displayed on the MAFAC Dashboard” section.
The MAFAC Stock values provided from the CBPTF Phase 2 report are estimates for all extant populations.
Polygons displayed on the dashboard’s map illustrate the area occupied by a MAFAC stock or the selected population. The stock polygon includes the population polygons that comprise the stock. A stock polygon may not accurately represent the area occupied by a stock if there are missing population polygons. If a polygon is not available for a population, the default display is the stock polygon. Polygons are not currently available for extirpated MAFAC stocks.
Values Displayed in the MAFAC Dashboard
Geometric Means (Geomeans)
The CBPTF Report defines the geometric mean as the nth root of n product of n numbers. Geometric means are considered to be a better measure of central tendency for data such as fish abundance which is typically highly skewed. The geometric mean smooths the contribution of periodic large run sizes which can inflate simple averages relative to typical population values. The 10-year period was selected to represent an interval of sustained abundance across multiple generational cycles.
CBPTF Stock Goal
Values for goals are from the CBPTF Phase 2 (Final) Report and are for natural adult abundance, as returns to the spawning grounds. All fish hatched from natural spawning in the rivers are considered natural origin, regardless of parental origin. Hatchery production returns or jacks are not included as part of the goal values.
Rules for Selecting CAP Fish HLI Estimates
Several rules are applied to select the CAP fish HLI estimates used to calculate CBPTF stock-level annual abundance values for comparison to natural origin low, medium, and high goals for those stocks.
These rules are:
- Only HLI estimates for a single, whole population are used (i.e., not estimates for a portion of a population, nor estimates for more than one population).
- Estimates of the number of fish that spawned (natural-origin spawner abundance (NOSA)) are used when available; when not available, escapement estimates are used.
- When NOSA (or escapement) estimates both including and excluding jacks are available, the estimate including jacks is used.
- When a single organization provides more than one estimate for the same population, the estimate they identify as their approved best value is used.
- When multiple organizations have provided data for the same population and year, and these data have the same prioritization according to the rules listed above, the values are averaged.
- Null values: When there are no values reported, or a null HLI record is reported, it is excluded from the geomean calculation.
- Real zeros: When sampling results in a count of zero, which would not allow for calculation of a geomean, the zero is replaced by 1 for purposes of calculating geomeans.
Described below are the values and their rules that are applied for informing the respective value displayed on the dashboard (each numbered circle in the image below matches the associated number in the left toggle list which gives a description of the given value).
This geomean is obtained from the CBPTF Phase 2 report and was calculated using available data from multiple sources, and is not limited to data in the CAP Fish HLI query.
This geomean (#1) may not be the same value as the geomean calculated using only data from the CAP Fish HLI query (#3).
The stock level geomean is calculated for the time period 2008-2017 using data available from the CAP Fish Query.
To calculate the overall stock geomean, the geo-mean is calculated for each individual population that has available NOSA whole population estimates (including jacks if available) in the CAP Fish HLI query for the 2008-2017 year range. These individual population geomeans are then summed together to provide the overall stock geo-mean. We acknowledge that having some populations included in this year-range that do not have available data for each year may affect the geomean, which is unavoidable to keep the year range consistent, and we reiterate that this tool serves to provide a general context for the CBPTF goals for the MAFAC group of stocks. More in-depth scientific analysis is required to assess accurate progress towards the CBPTF goals.
This geomean (#2) may not be the same value as the geomean calculated and published in the CBPTF Phase 2 Report (#1) as these are calculated using different data sources.
The stock level geomean is calculated for the most recent 10-years of data by using the second and eleventh most recent year from the CAP Fish query (e.g. if CAP Fish query has data from 2023 then the geomean uses data from 2021 to 2012). As a new year of data is added, the 10-year range advances by one year (e.g. shifts from 2012-2021 to 2013-2022).
To calculate the overall stock geomean, the geo-mean is calculate for each individual population that has available NOSA whole population estimates (including jacks if available) in the CAP Fish HLI query for the 2008-2017 year range. These individual population geomeans are then summed together to provide the overall stock geomean.
This graphic represents the summation, by year, of NOSA whole population estimates (including jacks when provided) for all populations in the selected stock for which there are data.
The graphic shows the summation of NOSA estimates for the most recent 10-years of data by using the second and eleventh most recent year from the CAP Fish query (e.g. if CAP Fish query has data from 2023 then the graph shows data from 2021 to 2012). As a new year of data is added, the 10-year range advances by one year (e.g. shifts from 2012-2021 to 2013-2022).
This value is the available NOSA (or escapement) estimate available from the CAP Fish HLI query from the second to most recent year available (e.g. if CAP Fish query has data from 2023 then the value will be from 2021).
This value shows the available NOSA whole population estimate that excludes jacks.
This value is the available NOSA (or escapement) estimate available from the CAP Fish HLI query from the second to most recent year available (e.g. if CAP Fish query has data from 2023 then the value will be from 2021).
This value shows the available NOSA whole population estimate that includes jacks.
This geomean is calculated for the most recent 10-years of data by using the second and eleventh most recent year from the CAP Fish query (e.g. if CAP Fish query has data from 2023 then the geomean uses data from 2021 to 2012). As a new year of data is added, the 10-year range advances by one year (e.g. shifts from 2012-2021 to 2013-2022).
To calculate the overall population geo-mean, the available NOSA whole population estimates (including jacks if available) are taken from the CAP Fish HLI query for the selected year range.
This graphic represents the NOSA whole population estimates (including jacks when provided) for the selected population.
The graphic shows the NOSA estimates for the most recent 10-years of data by using the second and eleventh most recent year from the CAP Fish query (e.g. if CAP Fish query has data from 2023 then the graph shows data from 2021 to 2012). As a new year of data is added, the 10-year range advances by one year (e.g. shifts from 2012-2021 to 2013-2022).
Why this Dashboard was Built
In 2020 the CBPTF of the MAFAC released its Phase 2 (Final) report “A Vision for Salmon and Steelhead Goals to Restore Thriving Salmon and Steelhead to the Columbia River Basin”, that included qualitative and quantitative goals for ESA-listed and non-listed salmon and steelhead, and recommendations for continuing the collaboration.
StreamNet Executive Committee members directed StreamNet staff to develop a tool that would easily provide access to CAP Fish HLIs natural-origin spawner and escapement estimates by displaying population estimates as part of the 27 fish stock groups identified by the CBPTF. Working with the Pacific Northwest Aquatic Monitoring Partnership’s Fish Monitoring Work Group and its committees, StreamNet developed this dashboard to display CBPTF Phase 2 (Final) Report’s goals, geo-means, and related estimates from the CAP Fish HLIs query.
To advance CBPTF’s goals, the Columbia Basin Collaborative (CBC) was formed in 2020. The CBC is an ongoing process with representatives from states, tribes, federal agencies, and stakeholders who are developing recommendations for achieving abundant and harvestable salmon and steelhead populations in the Columbia River Basin
MAFAC CBPTF Website and Report
The Phase 2 Report of the CBPTF of the MAFAC titled “A Vision for Salmon and Steelhead Goals to Restore Thriving Salmon and Steelhead to the Columbia River Basin” can be downloaded from NOAA Fisheries CBPTF webpage or from the ‘All StreamNet Document’ table
The below text is extracted as written in the Phase 2 Report with minor editing such as use of acronyms, spacing and removal/paraphrasing of text indicated in italics.
Page 11 of the Phase 2 report
Stocks are defined in the report as a group of fish of the same species that spawns in a particular lake or stream (or portion thereof) at a particular season and which, to a substantial degree, does not interbreed with fish from any other group spawning in a different place or in the same place in a different season.
For the purposes of the CBPTF, a stock is defined for Columbia Basin salmon and steelhead based on species (Chinook salmon, coho salmon, sockeye salmon, chum salmon, steelhead), region of origin (e.g., Lower Columbia, Middle Columbia, Upper Columbia, Snake, or Willamette, and run type (e.g. spring, summer, fall, late fall)
Page 156 and 164 of Phase 2 Report
The 24 stocks organized by region are listed below. Note that for goals and for the dashboard there are 27 groups because purposes the Lower Columbia Late Fall Chinook (bright & late brights) are split into two and the Lower Columbia Steelhead are separated into (SW WA Winter; L Col R Winter, and L Col R Summer).
- Lower Columbia: Spring Chinook; Fall Chinook (tules); Late Fall Chinook (bright & late brights), Coho, Chum, and Steelhead
- Mid-Columbia: Spring Chinook; Summer/Fall Chinook; Coho; Sockeye; and Steelhead
- Upper Columbia: Spring Chinook; Summer Chinook; Fall Chinook; Coho; Sockeye; and Summer Steelhead
- Snake: Spring/Summer Chinook; Fall Chinook; Coho; Sockeye; and Summer Steelhead
- Willamette: Spring Chinook; and Winter Steelhead
The CBPTF Report defines natural-origin fish and natural production as follows.
The below text is extracted as written in the Phase 2 Report with minor editing such as use of acronyms, spacing and removal/paraphrasing of text indicated in square brackets.
Page 163 of the phase 2 report
Natural production is the essential value in the long-term health and viability of Columbia Basin salmon and steelhead. Natural production goals are defined by abundance of natural-origin spawners for each salmon and steelhead population.
Natural-origin fish are those that were spawned and reared in the wild. Abundance is one of the four parameters (along with productivity, spatial structure, and diversity) commonly used to evaluate the biological health of salmon and steelhead, and upon which the long-term viability of salmon and steelhead depends.
Natural production goals identified by the Task Force do not distinguish the parentage (natural or hatchery) of natural-origin adults. This definition is consistent with that used by NOAA Fisheries for ESA Recovery Plan purposes. Natural spawning by hatchery fish may be intentional or undesirable depending on specific circumstances.
Abundance goals are based on 10-year geometric means for consistency with ESA recovery objectives. The geometric mean is defined as the nth root of n products. Geometric means are considered to be a better measure of central tendency for data such as fish abundance which is typically highly skewed. The geometric mean smooths the contribution of periodic large run sizes which can inflate simple averages relative to typical population values. The 10-year period was selected to represent an interval of sustained abundance across multiple generational cycles.
Page 163 of the phase 2 report
Abundance goals are based on 10-year geometric means for consistency with ESA recovery objectives. The geometric mean is defined as the nth root of n products. Geometric means are considered to be a better measure of central tendency for data such as fish abundance which is typically highly skewed. The geometric mean smooths the contribution of periodic large run sizes which can inflate simple averages relative to typical population values. The 10-year period was selected to represent an interval of sustained abundance across multiple generational cycles.
The below text is extracted as written in the Phase 2 Report with minor editing such as use of acronyms, spacing and removal/paraphrasing of text indicated in square brackets.
Natural Production Quantitative Goals Page 22, 44 to 46, and 186 of the Phase 2 Report
[page 22] Natural Production quantitative goals describe the natural production levels for each salmon and steelhead stock, both ESA-listed and non-listed, in the U.S. portion of the Columbia Basin and its tributaries, including some historical production areas that are currently blocked.
The Goals were based, wherever possible, on existing management plans and goals. They took into account a number of factors, including ESA delisting requirements, habitat constraints and production potential, density dependence, cultural needs of tribes, fishing interests, needs of dependent wildlife, sustainability, and mitigation responsibilities. Together, these provisional Quantitative Goals translated into a total increase of naturally produced salmon and steelhead from the current annual average of 400,000 to as high as 3.6 million adults. This increase represents an eightfold improvement from current levels but is considerably less than the number of salmon and steelhead that the Basin is believed to have produced historically.
[page 44-46] Natural production is an essential value in the long-term health and viability of salmon and steelhead. The regional technical teams identified goals for numbers of natural-origin spawners of salmon and steelhead in the U.S. portion of the Columbia Basin and its tributaries, including both listed and non-listed salmon and steelhead. Some regional technical teams also identified goals in historical production areas that are currently blocked. Goals were identified in ranges that represent a continuum of decreased extinction risk and increased ecological and societal benefits. Low-range, mid-range, and high-range goals provide abundance goals to achieve different levels of extinction risk and ecological and societal benefits for Columbia Basin natural-origin salmon and steelhead.
- Low-range goals identify minimum average abundance levels necessary to ensure the long- term survival of the population, stock, or species. For listed salmon and steelhead, the low-range natural production goals are, in most cases, consistent with ESA delisting goals. Delisting goals are generally defined as the abundance consistent with a viable population (i.e., a population with a five percent risk of extinction over a 100-year timeframe). ESA recovery plans sometimes identify abundance targets consistent with an ESA “recovery scenario” where numbers for a specific population might be higher or lower than the abundance number consistent with a viable population. In these cases, the Partnership adopted the specific recovery plan abundance target for that population. For non-listed species, low-range goals were based on the application of the same technical guidance used in ESA recovery plans to identify abundance levels consistent with a viable population. In some cases, a non-listed population is already meeting these low-range goals, and in this circumstance, the low-range goal serves as a reference point rather than a management goal. Low-range Quantitative Goals for natural origin salmon and steelhead on the spawning grounds in aggregate total 437,000 fish, which is approximately 1.2 times the current mean abundance numbers.
- Mid-range goals are generally halfway between the low-range goals and the high-range goals for listed stocks. For unlisted stocks, mid-range goals are generally defined as the number of natural-origin spawners that could effectively use available habitat and sustain high levels of harvest.
- High-range goals reflect “healthy and harvestable” levels that are generally three to five times greater than low-range goals and 50 percent or less than historical average abundance estimates. The Partnership recognizes that Quantitative Goals do not diminish the desire and intent of some stakeholders to achieve even higher levels of abundance. High-range Quantitative Goals total 2.8 million salmon and steelhead, which is approximately four times higher than current mean abundance numbers. The high-range goals are typically less than estimated historical abundance levels.
Note that spawning escapement, which is what is represented by the Natural Production goals, is less than the total number of fish returning to the Columbia River mouth because fish are lost to harvest, other causes of mortality (e.g., dam passage mortality, high temperature effects, marine mammal predation), and straying between the river mouth and the spawning grounds. Therefore, spawning escapement and river mouth return numbers are related but not directly comparable (page 186 of Phase 2 report).
The below text is extracted as written in the Phase 2 Report with minor editing such as use of acronyms, spacing and removal/paraphrasing of text indicated in square brackets.
Current Mean Abundance (2008-2017) Page 46 of phase 2 report
Current (2008-2017) mean abundance numbers generally fall within the target goal range but below the high goal range, which is indicative of additional scope for improvement (text copied from page 48 of phase 2 report). The current return of naturally produced salmon and steelhead to the Columbia Basin is less than 10 percent of the historical run (text copied from page 46 of phase 2 report). See Appendix A of the phase 2 report for stock and population level values.
Historical Abundance Page 44 (Table 7), 46, and 47
While historical abundance is uncertain, various estimates developed since 1979 place the average during the pre-development period (~mid-1800s) at 8.3 million, 7.5 to 8.9 million (Table 7 of the phase 2 report), 10 to 16 million, and 5 to 9 million (page 46 of the phase 2 report). See Appendix A of the phase 2 report for stock and population level values.
